I'm told by my friend in Prodi's campaign centre that Prodi had planned to call a press conference at 5.30 UK time, but has now cancelled it. Surely we don't have a Bush/Gore situation developing?
UPDATE 6.45pm DM Andy has helpfully posted this in the Comments section, but I thought it deserved more prominence.
The exit polls seem to show a clear centre left win but the electoral system is tricky enough that it ain't over yet.Each coalition consists of many parties, each party needs over 2% of the vote to add any seats to the coalition, although the party in each coalition with the highest vote under 2% gets in too. This favours Berlusconi as L'Union is comprised of more parties and therefore there is a chance that a lot of Prodi's votes will be wasted with parties around 1% of the vote. Which is of course why Berlusconi changed the system to this one in the first place and why Prodi's pledged to go back to the old system. Looking at the IPR exit poll and assuming the margin of error goes to Berlusconi we get this:
Olive Tree 32%
Communist Refoundation 5.5%
Rose in the Fist 2.8%
Greens 1.8%
Total for Prodi 42.1%
Forza Italia 22.5%
Alleanza Nationale 13%
Christian Democrats 7.5%
Lega Nord 5%
New PSI 1.5%
Total for Berlusconi 50.5%
If I was Prodi, I would want to check that at least 3 of the Greens, Communists, UDEUR and Italy of Values get up to 2% before declaring victory.
1 comment:
The exit polls seem to show a clear centre left win but the electoral system is tricky enough that it ain't over yet.
Each coalition consists of many parties, each party needs over 2% of the vote to add any seats to the coalition, although the party in each coalition with the highest vote under 2% gets in too. This favours Berlusconi as L'Union is comprised of more parties and therefore there is a chance that a lot of Prodi's votes will be wasted with parties around 1% of the vote. Which is of course why Berlusconi changed the system to this one in the first place and why Prodi's pledged to go back to the old system.
Looking at the IPR exit poll and assuming the margin of error goes to Berlusconi we get this:
Olive Tree 32%
Communist Refoundation 5.5%
Rose in the Fist 2.8%
Greens 1.8%
Total for Prodi 42.1%
Forza Italia 22.5%
Alleanza Nationale 13%
Christian Democrats 7.5%
Lega Nord 5%
New PSI 1.5%
Total for Berlusconi 50.5%
If I was Prodi, I would want to check that at least 3 of the Greens, Communists, UDEUR and Italy of Values get up to 2% before declaring victory.
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