A new ICM poll for tomorrow's News of the World shows the Conservatives nine points ahead of Labour on 39% with the LibDems on 20%. This would give a Tory majority of 18 according to Electoral Calculus.
However, it's not all good news. Twenty nine per cent believe Gordon Brown would be a better PM compared to 25% for David Cameron. However, the poll's respondents thought Mr Cameron was more in touch with their concerns by a margin of 44% to 34%. Cameron is also considered the more trustworthy by 38% to 33% and a more amenable dinner companion by 38% to 32%. In contrast, the poll found that voters believed Mr Brown was the more likely to try to get out of buying a round of drinks by 56% to 21%.
The Sunday Telegraph has a focus group poll conducted by Frank Luntz which shows David Cameron's efforts to reclaim the political centre ground are paying off. Luntz said that floating voters overwhelmingly warmed to his message. However he also warned that their support could prove to be fragile and the Tory leader could be "one poorly conceived stunt away from disaster". The Press Association reports...
"When voters compare you to Tony Blair, it's not a compliment," Mr Luntz said in an open letter to Mr Cameron. "You don't need to be cute to be effective. You must be a leader, not a brand. The new voters you are bringing back to the Conservatives see you as a political innovator and change agent, but I can already hear the scepticism creeping in. "Be careful. The electorate has grown cynical about the current government because it puts spin over substance." Mr Luntz found Mr Cameron was most popular among left-leaning voters and among those people who did not vote at the last election, while the strongest criticism came from Conservatives. Members of the focus group said that he reminded them variously of a cat, a Rolls Royce, white wine and Tunbridge Wells. If an actor played him, they said it would be Hugh Grant, Ralph Fiennes or Brad Pitt."
20 comments:
Nine points hehehe. The Tories often do better than the polls say, while Labour rarely if ever do.
Hmm - so Cameron is ahead on trustworthiness and being in touch. Brown is ahead on being the better PM.
Conclusion - Being trustworthy and in touch are, therefore, not qualities required ib a potential PM?
Wait til Gordon's Council Tax bills start dropping through letter boxes, the taxation of air travel, road charging and his removal of exemption from IHT for Private business.
Governments lose power as a rule.
Gordon Brown is all set to piss off the whole country as he does to the rest of the economy what he's already done to pensions...basically wreck the place.
What a fascinating post! But there are some surprises. Only 38% to 33% think Cameron would be a better dinner companion that Gordon Brown? That's pretty damning!
And that focus group must be a pretty weird group to say Cameron reminds them of a cat. Cats are subtle; Cameron is not. However, we don't know what choices the group was given. "Which of these animals does Cameron most resemble? A cat. A horse. An iguana." Most people would say cat. But he is not feline at all. He's a cocker spaniel. All eagerness for approval.
We don't know what cars were offered, either. Or drinks. "Does Cameron remind you of White wine. Retsina. Irn Bru." I'd love to have seen the original questions.
I do agree that he would be played by the equally irritating Hugh Grant, though. Or the new James Bond, another politically correct poseur.
Reminded them of a cat? More like a snake. And I doubt whether Grant, Fiennes or even Alan Rickman at his Snape-best, could match Dave for toe-curling slimy-ness.
As for moves to claim the 'centre ground', we'll see if they're saying that when the majority of the core support can't be bothered to turn out to vote because their party has been hijacked by a socialist fop.
Great scoop Iain.On Baxter that shows a Conservative majority of 18!
Fantastic news, and to be fair I think Cameron nows it is time to adjust tack (well it looks that way from what he has been saying recently)
John Galt - I see him as something more oleaginous than a cat, that's for sure, but I couldn't think of any oleaginous animal.
well it seems that all those actors were or are rather popular.. so i believe an election victory is not too much to ask.. and a rolls royce is still the classiest car around i most certainly believe...
Iain
Are you not concerned about david Camerons attitude to Tory party members. I think we have all seen and heard all we need to know about green issues, cycle riding, trips to frozen areas etc.
Why does he not get onto basic areas and come and talk to the membership, we are not labour supporters who will just nod and agree. Does he not agree with the basics of the party. What does he stand for. I think he thinks he cat treat the members like dirt and get away with it. it is very concerning.
I think the "Who would make the best Prime Minister" question is being skewed by the announcement regarding Brown's son. Cameron has been leading rather comfortably on this question for months until this poll. I'd put this question part of the poll as an outlier.
A growing number of Party members have seen through the Blair2 project (formerly the Conservative Party) and the electorate in general will have done so by polling day.
Would there be any merit in making Hilton party leader-at least people could then talk to the organ grinder direct?!
Iain, What you didn't say was that the Murdoch News of the World headline is "Nightmare for Cuddly Cam" and goes on to say
"David Cameron is failing to convince voters he should be PM, an exclusive News of the World poll reveals." ....
It never ceases to amaze me how Newspapers try to spin bad news for Labour into "good news" Its laughable. Dc should ccarry on as he is and not let the spin deflect his path in any way
Apparently the other side of the coin would have been available except for an ST editorial decision. Christopher Booker claims that his regular ST column has been censored - it was pretty damning about Cameron and (?) would have conflicted with the Luntz piece (see EUreferendum blog today for details).
Whether one agrees with Booker (or Lutz, for that matter) is largely irrelevant. What would matter is if the spectrum of opinion from the tory side were to be truncated by editorial fiat in order to present a false consensus and a one-eyed presentation of conservative reaction. Tends give a sense of false security - and could lead to a nasty shock at election time.
Is it my imagination or has the Telegraph also been edging away from rightish views into the mushy morass of the centre ground since the Barclay Bros. took over? (Message to Telegraph Group - Get rid of smartarse wimps like d'Ancona and Ferguson and get the old blood pumping again in the mornings by bringing back Mark Steyn. No point in continuing to pay good money for a newspaper one no longer agrees with, is there?)
maggie thatcher fan - you should have read the piece in private eye which explained that the UK 'murdoch' press were giving cameron the benefit of the doubt with an early honeymoon period.
then murdoch himself came to pay a visit to have face-to-face meetings with his uk editors. the following week there were a string of stories saying how bad cameron would be for britain, questioning his qualities.
Isn't co-incidence a funny thing ?!
On Friday afternoon, I bit the bullet and told the maths teacher of my 16 year old daughter, that she couldn't teach, and would never have have any idea to teach now, or in the future. I've stood by and watched her maths deteriorate over a two year period until I could take no more. Judging by rest of the parents in the (long) queue to see her I am not the only one with this opinion.
I feel much the same about Dave Cameron. He is about as appealing as a toad and does not come across well at all. I'm anything but right wing and would regard myself as a middle of the road Tory, but I don't see any future in this toffee nosed twit pratting about trying unsuccessfully to be tough. He isn't man enough for the job and most of us with our feet on the ground can see that. I have this constant nag that the current Conservative hierarchy are foisting on us a kind of Hans Christian Anderson "Kings New Clothes" character which they can view but the rest of us are observing the true image with absolute horror and trepidation!
'one poorly conceived stunt away from disaster' - Trying saying that at the end of a champagne reception...
I'm afraid that Cameron's "green with a hint of blue" indistinguishable from NuLab Tory party has finally decided this life-long Conservative supporter and member to take his vote elsewhere.
"(Cameron) a more amenable dinner companion by 38% to 32%. In contrast, the poll found that voters believed Mr Brown was the more likely to try to get out of buying a round of drinks by 56% to 21%"
OK Abraham, Genghiz, Julius, Otto, George, Winston, Nicolo, Frederick, Frederick, Frederick, Abraham, Agammemnon, Cyrus & Ashoka - whose round is it?
One of the Fredericks should read Ferdinand.
Pogo you won't be alone.One Blair in a lifetime is enough for anyone.
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