Thursday, December 06, 2007

SNP Poll Spells Bad News for Brown

I have just learned from sources north of Hadrian's wall of a new poll, which will hit the Scottish papers later today. The SNP commissioned YouGov to measure Holyrood voting intentions. The poll was taken from 28-30 November, well before the Wendy Alexander stuff hit the fan.

The results are (change from May 2007 election in brackets)

Constituency voteSNP: 40% (+7)
Lab: 29% (-3)Lib Dem: 13% (-3)
Con: 12% (-5)
Other: 6%

Regional vote:SNP: 34% (+3)
Lab: 26% (-3)
Con: 13% (-1)
Lib Dem: 13% (+2)
Green: 9% (+5)
SSP: 3% (+2)
Sol: 1%
Oth: 2%

This would give the SNP 51 seats. The poll also asked:How do you think the SNP Government has fared so far...

Well: 63%
Badly: 26%
Don't know: 12%

Among Tory voters it is 56% well to 32% badly; among Labour voters 52% to 38%; and among Lib Dem voters 64% to 32%. They then asked who was doing the better job - Alex Salmond or Gordon Brown? Alex Salmond: 50% Gordon Brown: 22% Neither: 21% Don't know: 7%.

If you had to choose which of the following words would best sum up how you would rate Gordon Brown as the Prime Minister up to now?"

Impressive: 18%
Disappointing: 64%
Don't know: 18%

44% of Labour voters think that Brown has been disappointing – more than the 39% who think he has been impressive!

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

Is there anyone who doesn't think Broon is a useless, ugly mediocrity?

Where did this idea come from that he is intelligent? He is as thick as pigshit and a good deal less charming.

Cue David Boothroyd's usual "you can't win the next election anyway so best quit now" post.

Anonymous said...

England needs Broon and Scotland like a hole in the head.

Anonymous said...

Actually, Stalin McSporran, I agree with you. I have always thought that Gordon Brown was able to hide the fact that he is a dullard, although an aspirational one, by not saying very much.

Now he's in a situation where he has to say things and his thick-wittedness - plus, his obsessive, secretive nature - becomes more apparent.

Anonymous said...

Excuse me, sehr geEhrter Iain

It was bad enough when in the War (ie the English Civil War in the 1640's) the Scotch-producing Army occupied Northumberland, presumably to enforce the Scotch-benefiting elements of the Barnett Formula

but Schocking !!!

Surely you cannot be suggesting that Schottland includes those parts of Inglaterra that are North of H's Wall but (by the Good Lord's Providence & Mercy) South of the Border

I remain your obedient Servant etc

G Eagle

Anonymous said...

Iain,

You are being naive if you think that this info will hit all the papers in Scotland. Since it is bad news for Labour and good news for the SNP, it will be tucked away in a small para in some papers and not printed at all in others (The Scotsman perhaps).

The Labour media establishment in
Scotland is just as bad as it is in England.

Roger Evans said...

Disappointing!!

Didn't the pollsters provide more expressive alternatives to describe Brown?

Anonymous said...

Apparently the Police in Scotland are to be paid what was negotiated and not what the labour shits in whitehall want to pay.

I can see a slow burning fuse of discontent being lit within the police.

For the first time the government will preside over a two tier police service.

Anonymous said...

I have to say I do think Brown is intelligent, but in the wrong way needed for a leader or a Prime Minister to be.

He's not sharp-witted, he can't think on his feet. Not in the way which Blair could do so well, and which Cameron can as well. He's the guy who likes to think things through, go over all the facts and figures, and come up with a solution.

He also doesn't have the emotional intelligence to connect with people.

In essense, he has the knowledge, but not the understanding....

Thats been clear all the way through in his policies as well. He knew the tax system, but he never understood it, otherwise he (ok darling, but it clear it was browns ideas) would never had mucked up the CGT tax changes. As anyone who understands the tax system would never had done what Labour did.

Old BE said...

Brown's only defining feature was that he was not-Blair. He spent ten years briefing against Blair so that when the steam finally ran out he was a shoo-in. Pity he didn't then know what to do once he stepped up to the plate.

Anonymous said...

Tough question that last one.

If you thought Brown was going to be absolutely bloody awful and he turned out to be only mildy poor, you might say he had been "impressive".

Depends on your initial expectation.

JackM said...

Any sources 'north of Hadrian's Wall' would still be England. That hasn't been the border between Scotland and civilisation for about 1500 years Iain.

Marco Biagi said...

The only thing I can think is that finally the Scottish electorate has stopped believing what it reads in the (deeply partisan) newspapers.

Chris Paul said...

Ho ho ho

YouGov! Questions provided by SNP!! Hardly conclusive. I'm on their panel and it is possible to tell who commissioned any given question within any given poll by the way they are pitched.

Often some odd forced choices in them as in Gordon's Britishness poll a few months ago.

By the way trolls ... there is nothing like personal name calling to show up the party Iain supports.

Anonymous said...

Have a look at this article on the corrosive political culture in Scotland.

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/comment/0,,2222835,00.html

Did it make the Gruaniad in England?

Anonymous said...

Box of tissues for Chris Paul

Anonymous said...

Haven't you boasted of the Scottish blood in your veins" Iain?

Your 18 Doughty Street supports the abolition of England into regions, and your blogging book publishes the "top Scottish blogs" and "top Welsh blogs", but does not publish a "top English blogs".

Weren’t you also Chief of Staff to David Davis when he dropped his commitment to an English Parliament?

Iain Dale said...

English Democrat, you have certainly made a fool of yourself in that comment, on all three points.

I have not "boasted" of being a quarter Scottish. I stated it as a fact.

18 Doughty Street does nothing of the sort. We even have your deputy leader a programme on the channel! I completely oppose the regionalisation of England and am fully supportive of the case for an English parliament.

My blogging book does indeed have a section for Top English blogs. Presumably you have never seen the book, otherwise you'd never write such utter rubbish.

And no I wasn't. When he joined the Shadow Cabinet in 2001 he adbided by Shadow Cabinet collective responsibility.

Try harder next time, and stop trying to alienate people who support the case for an English Parliament.

Anonymous said...

So Davis has dropped his commitment to Justice for England in order to curry favour with David Donald MacCameron and further his own career, begging to the Scots dominated Conservative Party for some crumbs from England's table?

He should resign now, or face losing his seat to an English Democrat at the next election.

We English don't like to be called fools by Scottish politicians like you. England is awakening and the days of the Scottish Raj are over. Perhaps you should find a seat in your home country of Scotland, as the people of North Norfolk have made it very clear they don't want a Scot telling the English what they can and cannot do.

I think you just want English votes, but will further Scottish causes once getting into parliament like every other Tory. If you really believed in an English parliament you would leave the MacScottish Conservative Party and join the English Democrats.

Anonymous said...

The poll was conducted under all normal YouGov provisions and practices

CC said...

Come on Iain. There is the best part of an entire English county, 65 miles of it in fact, North of Hadrian's Wall. This includes most of the Conservative seat of Hexham and the "will be Conservative again" seat of Berwick upon Tweed. No need to perpetuate the sterotype of Southern Tories...

Anonymous said...

anonymous @ 8.58am

Al the Scottish Govt has done is to pay the 2.5% pay award AGREED by all parties on the AGREED date (September 1st)

Jakey Smith (Scottish joke there) is planning to renegue on the agreement and pay the award in England from 1st December.

I suspect however that she will not now do this and will claim that she had no intention of doing so.

William Gruff said...

Iain

Most of the English county of Northumberland is north of Hadrian's Wall, and a little of it is north of the River Tweed.

Scotland is north of England's northern border and Hadrian's Wall is well to the south.

Anonymous said...

It might be bad news for England, but it's damned fine news for England.
Dave "there's a lot of Scottish blood in these veins" Cameron might not be too pleased, either, but who cares?
He doesn't speak out for our dying in England, does he? I seem to recall him saying those in England who didn't agree with the Barnett Formula were nothing but Sour Little Englanders. Some of those sour little Englanders are dead now. But most of us are still around and will be celebrating the lancing of those poisonous Scots in OUR parliament.