I will probably regret this, but both senior SNP and Tory sources all reckon the SNP might just pull it off. I'm staying up for this one!
What will it mean for Gordon Brown? Will his meeting tomorrow with Obama be overshadowed by domestic electoral woes? Will Labour MPs have the courage to do anything, and will the supine media again swallow the line that a single by election doesn't really mean anything. Think Eastbourne 1990.
UPDATE 12.30: SNP contacts predicting 1,500 majority.
UPDATE 12.35: Conservatives in Westminster North have seen the election of their candidate, Mehfuz Ahmed, in the Church Street Council By-Election. Church Street has been a Labour stronghold since its creation in 1964 – local residents have never before been represented by a Conservative Councillor. Mehfuz Ahmed’s victory is even more significant given Church Street’s location – it is one of ten electoral wards, and one of only four Labour wards, in the newly redrawn, marginal constituency of Westminster North.
UPDATE 12.45: Conservatives to leapfrog LibDems into 3rd place. LibDems to lose deposit it seems.
UPDATE 1.30: Recount. To stay up, or not to stay up, that is the question.