Thursday, November 06, 2008

David Cameron's Comfort Blanket

I've just been to a fascinating breakfast seminar put on by the BBC on what the result of the American election means. The speakers included Jeremy Vine, Nick Robinson and Andrew Cooper from Populus. Of course we are all looking for the lessons British politicians can draw from what happened on Tuesday. The one thing which struck me from Cooper's presentation was the answer given to this question in exit polls:



Do you think the country is heading in the right direction?



15 % said yes and 85% said no. When you ask the same question in this country the result is almost identical. 17% say yes and 83% no.



If I were David Cameron I would take great comfort from that.

56 comments:

Rupert Matthews said...

Indeed, you are correct as regards general voter attitudes. I do believe, however, that our campaigners in this country can learn a lot from the two candidates (Obama especially) on the mechanics of internet campaigning and internet fundraising. I'm not one for state funding of politics and so would like to see us move in the direction of vast numbers of smaller donations solicited by the net and direct mail. Could be a winner.

Old BE said...

The question for the Tories is: is Cameron enough of a change?

Anonymous said...

Iain - 17% Yes for UK and 85% No. Am I missing something? Margin of error? Confused here! Help!

Anonymous said...

looking beyond those numbers ......yes, the parallels are there but if Cameron really wants to capitalise he must break the link bridge Brown is attempting to build as the saviour of the national credit crunch crisis rather than an architect of our current predicament.

Anonymous said...

One thing missing from Conservative attemtps to link their situation to the CHANGE in America is that David Cameron is not Barack Obama.

Obama is the 1st African-American president, raised hundreds of millions from small donors, is an inspirational speaker who can draw hundreds of thousands of people to hear him, attracts support from heavyweight Republicans such as Colin Powell, plans to cut taxes for most Americans, called the Iraq war correctly and ran the most perfect campaign against Hilary Clinton and then John McCain.

Cameron has many qualities but in comparison he's another ex Eton / Oxford white politician who relies on wealthy donors to fund his party.

There's change that brings out 250,000 on a November night in Chigaco and has people dancing in the streets across a continent (and in a village in Kenya) and there's change because people are sick of Gordon Brown.

Not the same thing even if the result might be (or similar)

Mr Cameron needs to be wary of using the US as an example. Someone somewhere (Lord Mandelson?) will have him ridiculed for suggesting he's similar to Obama.

Anonymous said...

And the big change in direction Cameron offers is what exactly?

Man in a Shed said...

Hold on a minute - were we the license payers paying for that breakfast ?

Did you get to ask them why 175 BBC employees were in American this week ?

Anonymous said...

Cameron needs to break with this "national consensus" baloney and keep attacking Brown at every opportunity for his mis-management of the UK Economy over the decade he was Chancellor.

Brown was struggling to give an answer to Cameron at PMQs because there isn't one he can credibly give. The UK Economy far from being "well/best placed" is exactly the opposite. The markets know it,other governments know it and unfortunately the majority of the British public will soon know it because we've seen nothing yet - 2009 is going to be dire for mortgage re-possession;business bankruptcies;unemployment and economic growth whatever the spin is coming from Downing Street and BBC

Anonymous said...

Sorry, my maths is appalling, but 17+85=102, doesn't it? SO 2% of respondents said both.

Now, I can understand a "not sure" or a "not really" or even a "not totally" but surely you either head in a direction or you don't.

Anonymous said...

That's so nice
And I thought
biscuits were banned
At the BBC
Can we see it?
The conversation
not the cake
Like in the open
online
Paid for by
us
or was it
private?

Anonymous said...

It depends. What has been the long-term trend in both countries? In America I believe it fluctuates a lot over time, and is often positive. In this perhaps less optimistic country it is always in the duldrums... just a thought and not necessarily a correct one.

Anonymous said...

Fancy 'Call me Dave' quoting EU statistics at PMQs. It caused some mirth then, and begs the question as to his Euroscepticism. We have all seen how the Commission "President" has been triying to get into the limelight over the financial crash. More intrustive EU legislation to follow I presume. And what will Cameron say, let alone do?

Anonymous said...

I agee that Cameron should be attacking Brown ( Cameron is a change from Brown and Lord Sleaze the slimy merchants) every time with the slogan' it is time for change and it is time for a novice'.
Look how 'Labour is not working' did for
Thatcher. Keep the message simple and attack Brown every time in PMQs and in the media.

Brown is a tired old self-promoting redundant Scottish Labour MP lumbered with Lord Sleaze and Campbell reminding about the last 11 years of lies, more lies and cover ups.

Hope SNP wins and rattles Brown.

Anonymous said...

Off topic:

This morning the BBC breakfast news was carrying an item which proudly announced that the digital TV switchover has now started with a vengance. Viewers using old analogue TVs in the Borders TV region can no-longer receive BBC 2 programmes; very soon the remaining analogue services will also be turned off.

The BBC spun this as a 'marvellous' move, yet they coyly did not mention the financial costs to the viewer who wants to continue watching TV.

This coyness on the costs arises from a cosy cartel of the BBC and HM Treasury. The Treasury hopes to make a fortune selling off TV spectrum space - and could not care less that many viewers will now have to part with money. "Not coming out of their budget" was probably the cry from the Civil-Servant who saw a gong in the offing for this sleight of hand.

We should pity the poor pensioner who cannot afford such a cash layout in these straightened times - the government won't.

Lola said...

The more I think about this more it seems to me that cameron needs to (in marketing terms!) differentiate himself and by association the Tories from New Labour. At the moment he/they is/are just a slightly different version of what we already have. If he can find a simple message with which everyone can connect - and follow it through - he'll win hands down. Two points. What is that message and is he the man for the job?

T England. Raised from the dead. said...

Come on!
Just like America we need change, just like America we've had enough of the present government, just like America this government are going to be pushed out with a landslide, I think Daves doing an alright job so far! But to be truthful, I think a monkey leading the Tories would be able to beat Labour!

Anonymous said...

I also agree that Cameron should be attacking Brown more but he must do it with wit and verve and statesmanship - none of which the clunking great fist can manage. The spiteful attacks Labour and the Lib Dems go in for are a complete turnoff.

Anonymous said...

Iain, DC needs to put out a much simpler message about "change". What the UK needs is:

1. Less government
2. Less taxes
3. Less waste

The more money the taxpayer gives to the government the more money it wastes. Give power back to the people. What's happened to the David James waste crusade that Michael Howard set up?

It's time for DC to forget the bollocks of "sharing the proceeds of growth". The country is absolutely ready to accept a message of lower taxes, smaller government ( at all levels) and an end of waste.

It's not complicated. It's not radical. It's just plain common sense!!

Anonymous said...

It's a joke that Cameron thinks he can link himself to Obama. I mean we've never had a bunch of Bullingdon Club types telling us serfs what to before, have we?

Anonymous said...

Given that the direction we're heading is a federal state in Europe, what do the Tories propose to do about it?

Old Holborn said...

Jacqui Smith wants Tescos to take our fingerprints

strapworld said...

Cameron does NOT have a change agenda. His fiscal policy is still the same as Labour's, he has shown us no new idea's for the mess we are in. He has failed to sack a discredited Chairman and a discredited and hopeless shadow chancellor of the exchequer. He has shown by his sacking of Tony Mercer and the fact that he has ignored David Davis that he is a man who will not open up to everyone -as Obama claims he will do!-

I am sorry, Iain, I know you disagree with people like me but Cameron is unable to level with people like me is.

1. He has never had to work to LIVE!
2. He is from a privileged background.
3. he has surrounded himself with toffs.(apart from Hague, but that is why he has announced his policy that shadow cabinet ministers cannot have a second job!)
4. He is WEAK and does not have, in MY view, any leadership qualities at all.

So I do not believe the Tories can take any heart from this presentation from the left wing BBC.

AloneMan said...

Yes, the country wants a change, but is it convinced that Dave can deliver it ? I'm not, and unless / until he convinces enough people that he can, many will be tempted to stick with the devil they know.

Anonymous said...

I suspect the picture of Old Holborn is genuine can you confirm?

Anonymous said...

Is it any wonder 85% are dissatisfied with the political process. As anything up to 85% of our laws are instituted by Brussels what is the point of our politicians other than the PM who goes to our Government meetings to decide policy in Brussels?

Cameron of course has ignored all this. There is no point voting for the Conservative Party because nothing will change. The EU is sucking the life out of England and no major party will do anything about it. With UKIP shown up to be a bunch of self serving clowns (mirroring the three major parties) this leaves the BNP as the only credible opposition.

God help us!

Man in a Shed said...

Iain - Interest rates are heading towards zero ( screwing all our pensioners and anyone else who#s been foolish enough to save money etc ), house prices are crashing at over 2% a month, the national debt ( when real liabilities are taken into account ) is over 100% of GDP and our government wants to borrow more money in the hope of getting re-elected in 6 months time.

Anyone who doesn't want change is either certifiably insane or certifiably insane and Hazel Blears.

The problem is change to what and its time for a clear explanation - including the parts of the solution that are going to hurt - from our party.

Anonymous said...

This is for the people who still believe the BBC, when it comes to anything important.

BBC SHUNNED ME FOR DENYING CLIMATE CHANGE

FOR YEARS David Bellamy was one of the best known faces on TV.

A respected botanist and the author of 35 books, he had presented around 400 programmes over the years and was appreciated by audiences for his boundless enthusiasm.

Yet for more than 10 years he has been out of the limelight, shunned by bosses at the BBC where he made his name, as well as fellow scientists and environmentalists.

His crime? Bellamy says he doesn’t believe in man-made global warming.

Here he reveals why – and the price he has paid for not toeing the orthodox line on climate change.

CLANGER: Bellamy says Al Gore has 'no proof' that millions will die due to global warming

"When I first stuck my head above the parapet to say I didn’t believe what we were being told about global warming I had no idea what the consequences would be.

I am a scientist and I have to ­follow the directions of science but when I see that the truth is being covered up I have to voice my ­opinions.

According to official data, in every year since 1998 world temperatures have been getting colder, and in 2002 Arctic ice actually increased. Why, then, do we not hear about that?

The sad fact is that since I said I didn’t believe human beings caused global warming I’ve not been allowed to make a TV programme.

My absence has been noticed, because wherever I go I meet people who say: “I grew up with you on the television, where are you now?”

It was in 1996 that I criticised wind farms while appearing on Blue Peter and I also had an article published in which I described global warming as poppycock.

The truth is, I didn’t think wind farms were an effective means of alternative energy so I said so. Back then, at the BBC you had to toe the line and I wasn’t doing that.

At that point I was still making loads of television programes and I was enjoying it greatly. Then I suddenly found I was sending in ideas for TV shows and they weren’t getting taken up. I’ve asked around about why I’ve been ignored but I found that people didn’t get back to me.
more.....

Another Day said...

The real lesson from Obama's victory for Cameron is to stay calm, and the lesson for the Conservtatives is to back your man always.

Throughout the very long cmpaign there were times when things could have gone really bad for Obama. But they didn't and it was due to there main reasons:

1. He did not panic when polls moved against him

2. He did not panic when bad news stories appeared

3. He did not worry if he was crowded out of the news for a few days.

By keeping a level head and concentrating on his message and organisation, Obama was able to pull through.

Glenrothes will very likely to put the media focus back onto Labour and once again Cameron will be on the front foot.

Patience and belief is the key for the Conservatives now. Accept that politics does have it's up and downs and if you stay together during the downs they will soon be over. No harping on about leadership, Europe, taxation, judgement everytime the lead in the polls comes down a little bit - just back your man.

strapworld said...

anonymous at 11,52 points out the absence, from our BBC screens and radio, of David Bellamy.

yesterday the author Michael Crichton died, sadly from cancer.

Although wrapped as a novel his book STATE OF FEAR is full of accurate and never disputed facts to back up David Bellamy and the whole scandal of 'global warming!' (I heard on Fox this morning that Oblimey may be getting Al Gore in his team! God help us all!)

Another extremely interesting fact is that the book State of fear has a large appendix at the end on that other faith followed by everyone and eventually, quietly, forgotten! EUGENICS.

Those that want a good read and a really good argument against climate change plus the greater argument of eugenics! I urge you to get the book STATE OF FEAR ..Michael Crichton.

state of fear eugenics.

James Higham said...

Obama is more subject to largesse than many before him. Watch the NAAC in particular.

strapworld said...

Iain, Curiouser and Curiouser:

If I may refer to my note at 12.37 in relation to the author Michael Crichton.

Over lunch I read the obituries in both The Times and the telegraph on Mr. Crichton. Neither paper refers to State of Fear! The Times lists all his books!

Are they in the game of supressing any views against global warming?

Wrinkled Weasel said...

I have just watched Gore Vidal eviscerating David Dimbleby on the BBC's election coverage.

It's brilliant!

The great thing about Gore is that he doesn't give a shit. It's so refreshing, even though most of what he said was bollocks.

Cameron. Cameron disappoints me. Actually, "disappoint" is probably the weakest word I can use. He has it all: Brown is bonkers, the economy is in meltdown and everyone is fed up. And he has come up with nothing. Nada. Zero. He has, in the immortal words of someone he will never be, "nailed his colours firmly to the fence."

Let's just take the BBC. (Yes, fer ferk's sake take it.) He could capture the mood of the nation at this point and promise to trim its sails. He has in fact fudged the issue and done bugger all.

Glenrothes.

Is Iain dead? He has not mentioned it and unless I am very much mistaken the election that everyone said will be the final nail in Brown's coffin is TONIGHT!!!

The SNP will win. It will win because unlike the pathetic bunch of wassocs with their trousers glued to their balls (I refer of course to Her Majesties Loyal Opposition)Salmond has introduced real, radical, meaningful policies that people understand.

prostric

Philipa said...

Good for you for plugging Ellee Seymours blog, Iain. That's earned a sackful of brownie points in my book. Needless to say I'm a big fan of her blog.

BTW; was this breakfast an effort by the BBC to direct your thinking? My my how unusual.

Wrinkled Weasel said...

Philipa. Iain was clocked recently, fraternizing with Dreck Draper. And now it's the BBC. It could be described as feasting with panthers. Oscar Wilde used this phrase when describing his dalliances with stable lads and footmen. I hope it was only a mild sucking up.

Philipa said...

I hope it was only a mild sucking up.

Indeed!

Thanks, WW

Anonymous said...

Gosh Iain, the Labour trolls are out in force today - looks like Dolly Draper's got some extra hands on deck!

Forget it Labour trolls - the people of England want change. They want someone inspiring, with a vision, star appeal and the policies to take this country forward. There is someone with all this. You might have heard of him. He's called David Cameron.

I've been thinking about what specifically could make up Cameron's change agenda - 10 policies the Conservatives could promise in the run-up to the election which would be positive, well-received, genuinely deliverable and exciting. They are:

1) Promise to divide HM Revenue and Customs back into two separate bodies - Inland Revenue and HM Customs and Excise.

2) Repeal the Consolidate Fund Act 2005, stripping the Treasury of the power to issue funds out of the Consolidated Fund.

3) Scrap plans for a Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, restoring its power to the Law Lords.

4) Revoke the Disability Discrimination Act 1995, giving choice back to business.

5) Scrap plans for "super casinos".

6) Replace the rail watchdog group Passenger Focus with a series of geographically separated groups.

7) Revoke all pardons given to soldiers executed for cowardice and other offences during the First World War.

8) Scrap the Consmer Credit Act 2006.

9) Increase the age of candidacy for public elections from 18 to 21.

10) End the proposed Commission on Equality and Human Rights.

Anonymous said...

Cameron should ban ALL Conservative shadow ministers from giving interviews, quotes etc to any BBC outlet until it starts being less biased.

Anonymous said...

Cameron can't build a co-alition - he'd have to be a complete dimwit to not win the next election but it's a protest vote. Gordon Brown really is an evil man though.

Lisbon referendum for starts.

Why do politicians have a different agenda from the people. It's patronising & rude - as so ably pointed out by Cable on HIGNFY when he said to Hislop "you won't understand this". They are not smarter than us - they just think they are.

They do not care more than us - it's as if they don't care at all. Parliament & Cameron in particular (for i'm a Tory) are not fit for purpose.

Anonymous said...

Less Tories on BBC? Great idea! And who will hand Cameron his comfort blanket? His Nanny?

Anonymous said...

@karl. I really do hope that Cameron adopts your weird top 10 policy wishlist.

Anonymous said...

John

Be respectful buddy - 'Nannykins'

Malcolm Redfellow said...

"... is a long time in politics"

From the Rasmussen Presidential Approval index for Wednesday, 4th November, 2008:
Forty percent (40%) of U.S. voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is handling his new role as president-elect. Thirty-two percent (32%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a net rating of eight ...

Anonymous said...

As mentioned earlier, the BBC and honesty in the Climate Change debate are strangers.

For some reason the BBC spins the line that all is proved. No it is not.

Bellamy may, or may not, be right - but let us hear a debate with him taking part on the BBC - not just censorship.

Chris Paul said...

Cameron is the last thing they want. The change they're after is AWAY from hedgies and bankers speculating and people with posh voices and millions in the bank pontificating at them. People actually want a bigger state at this point in time. As a proper socialist this is invigorating. hearing Obama called a socialist is invigorating. talking of spreading the wealth is invigorating.

The people are actually willing Labour to take more control after years of willing them to slacken off. Calling for more control over banks. More control over utility companies privatised by Tories. More control over oil companies who boards include Tories like young Duncan.

Cameron could hardly be more different from Obama. But Brown has a good deal in common with him.

Cameron is many times more inexperienced - in terms of REAL LIFE - than Obama and that is what matters. He has never ever struggled to make ends meet. And nor did McCain or Bush.

Change is coming and not change that can possibly be any comfort whatsoever to Cameron.

Anonymous said...

Apart from the lack of jug ears and obvious psychotic tendencies precisely how does Cameron differ from Bliar or Broon? The Tories' biggest liability - at least in election terms - is Cameron. Until we found out otherwise, at least Bliar was initially seen as one of the people. Cameron is seen as an upper class twit and perhaps better suited to a seat in the Lords.

Anonymous said...

Cameron should not take comfort from it. Nothing that is bad for Britain can be good for the Conservatives.

Anonymous said...

Its such a pity all those piss poor Labour blogs failed so miserably and left Labour bloggers with nowhere to go. But not too surprising given the moronic opinions they post here. They're like Accrington Stanley supporters who've mistakenly stumbled into the Premier League.

Wrinkled Weasel said...

While the cat's away...( I do hope I don't get a red card)

Surrey 1908.
"Quentin, that was a deucedly decent game of Tennis. Shall we play again sometime?

"Of course we will dear Algernon. One day we may play at Wimbledon."

"I jolly well hope not. They make the fellows wear long trousers and the women...well, you can barely see their ankles."

Algernon drew heavily on a Passing Cloud and as he exhaled, and adopting a pose of languid disinterest he said,

"I wonder what sport will be like a hundred years from now?

"They will probably be racing motor cars, only they will have to have some extraordinarily fit chaps to run in front with the red flags".

"Oh, no, in a hundred years time they will have cars that travel at at least the speed of the railway engine. Not only that, the drivers will have to wear clothes emlazoned with advertising slogans."

"You have been at the Laudanum again dear boy. You seriously believe that some poor sportsman must have a Carbolic Smoke Ball painted on his shirt front or a bottle of syrup of figs?"

"Yes, it is a bit silly isn't it"

"And next you'll be telling me that some chump from the Bullingdon wants to be Prime Minister. "

"Quentin my very best chum, that will happpen when women get the vote and an African becomes the President of America!"

"Ha,ha,ha,ha. let us take tea"

Anonymous said...

What should have struck you is the pointlessness of exit polls.

No result should be called until every vote is counted.

As for Rupert Matthews point about internet fundraising, we we level headed brits received an e-mail asking for donations to the campaign of Mr. Barasck Obama I hope we would all be wise enough to deal with them as we do all the other Nigerian phishing scams.

strapworld said...

Karl said at 3.39pm tells us how wonderful David Cameron then comes up with ten policies which he thinks Cameron should back.

NO CHANCE.

I agree with Wrinkled Weasle. Cameron has missed so many open goals lately I have lost any confidence I had in him.

A leader can seize the moment, can impress and people will want to follow him.

I cannot see the queue forming!

He better wake up and get rid of his upper class cabal surrounding him, especially that overblown man boy george, who I believe has blown it!

Raedwald said...

People will vote for Cameron because he's not Brown, not because they believe that the Conservative manifesto offers them more hope than the Labour one.

Cameron shows no signs of failing to believe that a cosy political duopoly will last for ever; some glorious Elizabethan summer where the chaps take turns at governing.

Meanwhile the nation is hungry for political reform. The venality, the corruption, the nepotism, the Big State centralism, the whole stinking foetid cesspit of the political class are anathema to most voters. Yet Cameron pretends not to hear the clamour at the gate; if he pretends enough, maybe he can keep the current cosy system going for another five years, maybe even take some of the head of steam off the pressure for change.

All the evidence indicates otherwise. As a class, MPs are loathed (though individual ones are always decent chaps), Parliament is scorned, the probity of the Central State is in the gutter and no-one has confidence that Nanny knows best.

Osborne is a puerile joke, only serving to rob call-me-Dave of his One Nation credentials. Tory defence and foreign affairs shadows are unknown, unrecognised, un-nameable nonentities. The Conservative election strategy of Buggins Turn fails to inspire even loyal Tories. Yet Cameron will win the next election by default - because he's not Brown.

Angry? I am.

Anonymous said...

This is no suprise Cameron is a "Liberal" so he fits well with Obama. They are both alike in that know one knows what the hell they stand for. But the biggest issue is National Security and Foreign Policy, the economy we come and go whereas we all be gone if there is a terrorist attack. This whole Liberal appraoch by Cameron is stupid. We need to continue the War on Terror which is the Bush Doctrine, and win in Iraq and Afghanistan. But it doesn't stop there we need Iran to know they cannot build the Nuclear Bomb and will have to be stopped Military if needed. Same with Syria and any other Nations which pose a threat to the Free World.

strapworld said...

I think we are all in danger of missing the greatest lesson from Obama.

Think of both Obama and McCain. Think of the thousands of people drawn to their meetings.

Think,now, of our beloved country. How many people attend political meetings. Please do not count those members of the party bussed in to make up the 'audience'. Think ordinary people drawn to see and hear the politician!

It just does not happen.

Think of general elections. We have the circus surrounding the leaders of the parties. They attend carefully stage managed events throughout the country. Reported on by the band of selected journalists bussed around with the leader! and given one to ones!!! Each day, surprise, surprise each party holds a press conference ON THE SAME SUBJECT!!!

Think of Euro Elections. Have you ever attended a Euro MP's meeting or heard of one? Have you ever heard of a MEP holding a meeting during the election? If so how many people attended?

Think of local elections. Who is bothered? Have you ever attended a Parish/Town Council Meeting? Have you ever attended a District or County Council Meeting? Very few people do.

My point is that we are, now, due to both the Conservatives and the Labour Parties a TOP down political system. They have removed local politics and it is only with a vibrant LOCAL political system that people's interest in politics itself can be revived.

We will never get the hundreds of thousands of people clambering to attend a meeting or waiting hours outside the polling booths until we are given far greater local democratic rights. When people realise they can make a difference locally that will wake them up.

We have to follow the American methods of local democracy with its local referendums, local police chiefs elected by the people. local health chiefs elected by the people etc etc etc.

We have to remove regional governments. we have to bring democracy back to local issues.

That also means giving the people a say on Europe. It is Europe that has created all the top down legislation that has ruined our local democracy. We have never been given an opportunity except to join a COMMON MARKET that was the only thing the British people have agreed to. Politicians have cheated us.

IF we can learn anything from Obama and his method of local activists within the community. We must have a vibrant local community. Make the change or we become a nothing! A Soviet.

Anonymous said...

He needs to. With labour about to win in Glenrothes, Osborne actively talking down the economy today and Brown back in the game, he needs every ounce of comfort he can get at the moment

Roger Thornhill said...

Iain, David Cameron should not take comfort from that result, for he is heading in roughly the same direction as Labour and most people know this.

Anonymous said...

Anon 10:06 AM said "... [Obama] called the Iraq war correctly and ran the most perfect campaign against Hilary Clinton and then John McCain."

Were you watching a different campaign? Obama has flip flopped like most have on Iraq. Clinton and McCain couldn't win against the man who had a large proportion of the media in his pocket. Without a teleprompter he is as coherent as John Prescott. He jettisoned a number of friends only when they became a liability. There are question marks over foreign donations to his campaign and there are question marks concerning his donation system that neglects to use the 3 digit security code on the back of cards, and has led to a number of fraudulent transactions.