Monday, March 09, 2009
LibDems Should Read Oaten's COALITION Book
I was interested to read in the Guardian that the LibDems are using 'game theory' to work out their strategy in the event of a hung parliament. Apparently, Vince Cable is familiar with the concept from his days at Shell. I wonder if their strategists will be given a copy of Mark Oaten's book, COALITION to read, in which he traces the history of coalitions and analyses their successes and failures. When he began writing the book he felt coalitions were, in general, a good thing, but by the time he had done the research and written the book he had changed his mind and is now strongly opposed to them on the basis that however you define coalitions, they have been fairly disatrous in the past for the Liberals. Something for Vince Cable and his team to mull over.
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18 comments:
For the Lib Dems to make a coalition with anyone when their party is already a messy and ineffectual coalition between liberals and social democrats would tear the party in two.
There will only be a hung parliament if David Cameron doesn't get his act together and tell us why we should vote for his party.
After Hain's "assuming there will be an election next year" comment and The Glenrothes factor, this may all be irrelevant.
Got to agree with Letters From A Tory here.
The Lib Dems are a fake party.
And anyway they have no choice - if the prop up Labour in the current climate then they will be back to the number of MPs Jeremy Thorpe used to command.
The other problem is their two key characters are in the wrong parties. (Red) Vince Cable is clearly Labour and Clegg is a Tory who's in denial.
That depends how you define "coalition".
Is it the fusing of independent political parties into a "united" parliamentarian presence - to create a majority government, or a party comprised of partly-aligned issue groups (such as the GOP*)?
They're similar, of course, in that component priorities clash, but usually the latter is more workable.
*evangelicals, foreign-policy hawks, low-tax zealots, corporate america, libertarians, free-marketeers... etc.
Not focused on politics today I'm afraid. But read somewhere a very old blog re. your mum and arthritis. I was interested because I have it badly at 43 and would like to raise awareness re. younger sufferers. Wifey in the north suggested starting a blog which I've done, but find I can't and don't want to bore people on a daily basis so end up blogging about other things. May I ask, has your mum had it since young? Should I be persuing this I suppose it what I'm asking myself. I love to write - as you can see! Will ramble no longer, any suggestions very gratefully received!
www.joanne-helpinghands.blogspot.com
P.S. Sorry to hear you didn't enjoy Elaine. I wish she hadn't had all that work done on herself - she doesn't look like the same person. Maybe she's trying too hard.
Mr. Letters is right . I think the free market posturing of the Libs would buckle if they were thrown any bone by Brown but they would not support Conservatives
Depends what you mean by success and failure. If it means a little bit of national power, then Coalition is the only way that the Lib Dems will ever achieve that.
On the other hand there are squillions of Lib Dems for whom success is the chance to exert a little bit of power on their locl council, whose position might be put at risk if the Lib Dems were something other than a "Neither of the Above" party.
Blue Eyes said... “There will only be a hung parliament if David Cameron doesn't get his act together and tell us why we should vote for his party.”
No sign of that happening yet. You’d have thought it would have happened by now if it was going to.
Newmania said... “I think the free market posturing of the Libs would buckle if they were thrown any bone by Brown but they would not support Conservatives”
And you think quite wrong. There is no chance whatsoever of the Lib Dems doing a deal [with them] if Labour loses its majority. Whereas Tory-lite Clegg would certainly contemplate a deal with the Tories.
The stumbling block remains as ever electoral reform.
At the very least there would have to be a Speaker’s Conference or there would be no deal and some months of minority government followed by another election.
The Social Democrats changing their mind again, hardly sticking to a core philosophy.
Tacking Liberal to their title is further evidence of opportunism from day one of their conception
Nice to see Tories and some of their New Labour fellow travellers taking Westminster three party politics seriously. They cwill find it easier tahn they think, as their local parties have done.
I fervently hope and beleive that the Tories will not be in need of Dum Lib prop come the next election and they will be consigned to the electoral dustbin where they belong....
I'm sorry to say this, but no matter how hard I try, I simply can't take Mark Oaten seriously. Not since that rent boys episode.
Letters From A Tory is right as ever.
Mirtha Tidville said... “...they will be consigned to the electoral dustbin where they belong....”
While I don’t agree with Iain about any realistic possibility of hung parliament this time, it is nevertheless inevitable that there will be one sooner or later. The overall tendency for an increase in Lib Dem seats is mathematically and politically undeniable. Even if they suffer a set-back this time their rise will continue.
So one day in the not too distant future - either the Tories or Labour is going to have to have Lib Dem votes to form a government.
It’s not a question of “if” but only of “when”?
Possibly too late for Vince Cable, but it will happen.
The question will then arise as to whether Cons or Lab are prepared to deal. My belief is that on the first occasion they won’t. On the second occasion they will have to.
Coalition government is a very bad thing - we've had one for 11 years.
Blair and Brown fought over power and control and wasted New Labour's opportunity to make a difference during it's term in office.
Depending on your point of view:
1. Just think how much they could have achieved if they had worked together as a single government
2. Just think how bad Labour's record of delivery has been because the government has been divided.
Jonathan Cook said... “Coalition government is a very bad thing - we've had one for 11 years”
All national parties are coalitions; get used to it.
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